Why the French Election is Important for the Rest of the World
One of the most significant overseas events in Global politics this year was the French Presidential election. Even American newspapers like the New York Times that primarily report on domestic issues put out articles and headlines about the French election. These newspapers recognize the degree to which this event will be an important indicator of the future of France and the European Union.
On April 24, President Emmanuel Macron went on from the election’s first round to win the run-off, retaining his status as President. But despite this run-off pitting the same candidates against each other as the one before it, it was notably closer. This is mostly due to the increased dissatisfaction the French people have felt towards Macron.
Macron’s popularity has been steeply dropping. According to a recent poll from the French Institute of Public Opinion (IFOP), only 37% of French citizens approved of their president. Many people now believe that Macron’s ideology is defined by nothing but its marketing appeal and that it is not a political force that can bring actual change. Originally seen as a moderate who stood above the pettiness of partisan politics, Macron’s unpopular policies on COVID lockdowns and gas taxes outraged many along the political spectrum.
Robert Nelson, a history teacher at Athenian and the Current Events seminar instructor for next year, explained Macron’s decline in the eyes of the French public.
“He campaigned on a promise to basically blow through France’s heavy regulations, to make them more business friendly, and to make them a little less rigid in their politics, which he has largely done,” Nelson said. “But of course when you do that the spoils are distributed unequally. Some people are enriched by that process while other people feel like they’ve been left out. So, Macron, for whatever reason, is seen as an elitist who sides with pro-business, wealthy French people.”
Macron’s opponent, Marine Le Pen, also represents part of why this election is so important. Le Pen is seen by many as a far right populist from the same mold as Donald Trump. Lea Hartog, the current International Relations teacher, explains Le Pen’s campaign in 2022.
“In this election [Le Pen’s campaign] had been about the economy and trying to promote the belief that her policies would better serve most French people,” Hartog said.
There has also been widespread concern that the election of Marine Le Pen or another figure from the French right will nullify much of the social progress that France has made during modern times. While Marine Le Pen is more centrist on cultural issues than her father Jean-Marie Le Pen—possibly as a tactic to appeal to the general populace—she could still serve as a gateway for increasingly nationalist and nativist policies from the right.
Jean-Marie Le Pen originally created the party that Marine Le Pen ran with during this year’s election, until she ousted him for his inflammatory and divisive rhetoric. Several times over the course of his career, he gained significant political momentum and threatened to win the presidency, most notably while France was considering membership with the EU.
Kim Webb Palacios lived in France for several years while studying the European Union. She illustrates the general sentiment of the French right through rhetoric associated with Jean-Marie Le Pen.
“[He’s] anti-immigration, pro-French identity and French industry, and believe that France wouldn’t benefit from being part of the [European Union] for reasons that didn’t relate to the potential erasure of French identity,” said Palacios. “[He] made the case that economically [joining the EU] didn’t make sense and that the math wasn’t going to add up and just felt that France would be better off if it was idealized for ‘French People,’ and I’m using air quotes because what he meant by that were ethnically French people.”
Macron beat Marine Le Pen easily in their 2017 matchup, but this recent election was projected to be much closer. One poll released by IFOP-Fiducial on April 10 this year suggested that Macron would beat Le Pen narrowly by just 51% to 49%. Additionally, the traditionally center right and center left parties collectively received only 10% of the vote. This illustrates that the French people have been looking for new solutions and they have found that increasingly in the extreme right and left.
For many French citizens, the new populist right has become an enticing movement. It has promised alternatives to Macron’s stifling COVID lockdown policies and perceived elitism with the offer of decreased immigration and a nationalist approach to the EU.
Robert Nelson provided insight into the rise of the far right in France. “You can look at the same trends in globalization,” Nelson said. “Populist movements everywhere respond to the loss of identity or decision making at the local level, and they’ve sent [people] running to the far right parties. But it’s also specific to French causes. France used to be a major power on the world stage and [some of its citizens] feel like it’s been much diminished. People feel like the state is too bureaucratic or the people have no agency at the local level, or they feel like French culture is under assault from outsiders or immigrants—most notably Islamic immigrants from North Africa. And that kind of argument has hit a nerve with, unfortunately, an increasing number of French people.”
But the question remains: what does this all have to do with the rest of the world? The main reason why the French election will be so impactful—among many other geopolitical events that could be influenced by French policies—is that France is one of the most influential members of the European Union (EU) and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). Because of this, a French wave of anti-globalism could easily cause France to leave and noticeably weaken these organizations. We can use the war in Ukraine as an example here: Le Pen has strong ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and if she did end up being elected president this year, her nationalist leaning could cause France to break line with the rest of Europe on sanctions towards Russia. It’s impossible to understand what the direct impacts would be, but there is almost no circumstance under which this would be good for Ukraine or the rest of the world.
With the recent withdrawal of Britain from the EU, many people see the possible exit of France as a final blow. While Le Pen has deliberately retracted any sentiment that could be seen as advocacy against the EU, her nationalistic and xenophobic rhetoric may still result in a desire to strengthen France at the cost of the European Union.
A French student who prefers to remain anonymous explains how he sees the threat of Le Pen and her policies: “I mean, it would be the end of the EU if Le Pen was elected, or any candidate who has similar views. I don’t know if she’s worse or better than any other candidate.”
Although Le Pen lost the election this time around, she could easily run again during the next cycle. Each time she runs, the world has seen the growing influence of France's right on full display. The EU and NATO are two of the most important international organizations to exist in our modern world, and the rise of the reactionary, nationalist right in France could serve to severely weaken them, leading to innumerable consequences that will even affect us across the ocean in the United States.
