Virginia Governor's Race: Predictor of Upcoming Elections?
The 2022 midterm elections are around the corner as Democrats and Republicans are faced with their first real test in next week's Virginia governor's race. The race will provide the first snapshot of the political shape of this country with Democrat Terry McAuliffe running against Republican Glenn Youngkin. Democrats hope to end the trend of Virginia governors in the opposite party of the sitting president winning elections. A McAuliffe win could potentially create momentum for Democrats to pull off an upset in the 2022 elections.
Historically, the party that elects a first-term president loses congress in the succeeding midterm elections. Democrats hope to find a variety of issues to base their 2022 campaign off of the outcome of this election.
Zakiya Newman, of Youth Leaders World Learning said, “This is a major test for the two parties to test out their campaign strategies, but since Virginia has such diverse demographics that are representative of America, it will also be the closest indicator we have to what party will have more political power in the coming years.”
Virginia consists of near equal numbers of urban, suburban and rural voters of all races and economic classes, making it a good reference point for voter turnout.
In an interview with Nathan Warters of W&M news, William and Mary professor John Mcglennon said, “Key questions are going to be related to turnout, and there's not that much persuasion going on in this election campaign. There's a relatively small number of voters who really don't know which way they'll wind up on Election Day.”
The level of undecided voters is at an unprecedented low, so the two campaigns will be more concerned with getting their established voters to the ballots instead of convincing others to vote for them. This creates a unique opportunity for the two parties to test out their platforms, yet also inhibits them from understanding what will encourage undecided voters to the ballots.
For Republicans, this election presents an opportunity to capitalize off of receding Biden approval ratings. Phillip M. ‘23, Co-leader of the Political Inclusion Club at Athenian said, “The Republicans are being offered a fresh start; [Former President Donald] Trump has lost a level of relevance while recent errors in Afghanistan have lessened Biden’s popularity. The Republicans are being given a chance to go on the offensive, which if successful in Virginia, could continue them into 2022 and beyond.”
Republican Glenn Youngkin is trying to carefully distance himself from Trump, publicly acknowledging Biden’s victory yet not going so far as to condemn the insurrection. The American political field is shifting, though the direction the country chooses to take is yet to be decided.
